As UK swings left with Labour landslide, what awaits Middle East policy?

LONDON — A radical shift in the United Kingdom’s Middle East policy is unlikely under the newly elected Labour government, though internal party rifts over the war in Gaza will mean the party will approach the region differently from the Conservatives.

On Friday morning, the ruling Conservatives, which have been in power for 14 years, suffered their biggest defeat in electoral history, with Labour winning a landslide of 412 seats compared to the Tories’ 121. The Conservatives have fallen out of favor with the British electorate over a series of scandals, including blame for mismanaging the COVID-19 pandemic and for worsening the health of the economy, plagued by soaring inflation and rising energy prices.

The new prime minister, Keir Starmer, adopted a cautious approach to the leadership contest in a bid to unite the party around more centrist politics than his predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn. While Corbyn’s Middle East policy contrasted heavily with that of Conservative leaders, Starmer’s appears to overlap.

Some but not radical change

Lina Khatib, director of the SOAS Middle East Institute, said that a radical shift in Middle East policy is unlikely under Starmer, but there will be important changes.

“In its election manifesto, Labour highlighted the importance of resolving the Israel-Palestine conflict, an issue that matters to large swaths of the party’s constituents,” she told Al-Monitor. “Labour will need to balance meeting those constituents’ expectations regarding recognizing a Palestinian state while keeping in step with US policy on the issue.”

Labour lost four seats to pro-Palestinian candidates, the Guardian reported, as voters expressed their frustration that Starmer has toed a similar line to the United States', initially calling for a humanitarian pause in the fighting before supporting a full cease-fire and delaying the recognition of an independent Palestinian state, something many believe is a precondition for lasting peace. 

George Galloway, a pro-Palestinian and pro-Kremlin candidate, lost his seat to Labour, however, by 1,400 votes.

Kelly Petillo, program manager for Middle East and North Africa at the European Council on Foreign Relations, agrees with Khatib that there will be no radical change in Middle East policy under Starmer. She said that Conservative policy toward the Middle East has been relatively limited in recent years, mainly through the narrow prism of migration, extremism and reduction in aid budgets. Historically, Labour is a pro-Palestinian party, she said, meaning there could be room for the new government to broaden its approach to the region.

But there is significant overlap. Since the fighting broke out in Gaza last October, senior Tory lawmakers have been talking more about Britain’s Middle East policy and calling for the recognition of an independent Palestinian state.

“[Former UK Foreign Secretary] David Cameron gave a speech a couple of months ago at the Conservative Middle East Council Gala and basically, he articulated a vision that even included recognition of a Palestinian state, which is exactly what the Labour government proposes in the manifesto,” Petillo said.

Petillo added, “The Labour government hasn’t really come out to challenge strongly Sunak in this campaign on their foreign policy. They have mostly challenged them on the core missions of their manifesto."

Starmer has also ruthlessly addressed the fallout that dogged his predecessor over allegations of antisemitism in the party under his leadership. In response, Starmer has adopted a zero-tolerance approach to antisemitism and expelled many senior members on the Labour left, including Corbyn himself. Many of those expelled were ardently pro-Palestinian and that is tension that will remain in the Labour party. Starmer will have to walk the tightrope of trying to appease the more pro-Palestinian voters and factions while also ensuring there is no antisemitism. 

Labour was hoping to win the east London constituency of Chingford and Woodford Green, but the vote was split by Faiza Shaheen, who the party suspended for a series of posts on the X platform downplaying antisemitism allegations. As a result, veteran Tory lawmaker Iain Duncan Smith held onto his seat there.

Petillo said there is a similar dynamic playing out for the Democrats in the United States, whose leader is losing popularity for not taking a hard enough line on Israel over its assault on Gaza.

Gulf engagement, Iran file

Khatib said that going forward, Labour will need to step up the UK’s engagement with Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

“This includes increasing alignment on the Israel-Palestine conflict and on Iran’s destabilizing interventions in the Middle East and revitalizing economic links in ways that support multi-sector growth for all actors involved rather than focusing on the Gulf as a market for the British arms trade or as a source of funding for UK-based enterprises," she said.

Labour will also actively review policy regarding Tehran’s regional interventions in the Middle East and possibly designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Houthis as terrorist organizations, bringing the UK in line with Washington on the designation of both groups. Starmer has publicly expressed his support for both policies and said he would continue to strike the Houthis in concert with the United States if they continue to disrupt commercial shipping in the Red Sea with their attacks.

Petillo said it will be difficult for Starmer to balance Washington's and the more progressive Labour wing's priorities on Middle Eastern issues like Gaza. The growing specter of Donald Trump returning to the White House for a second term only adds to the uncertainty.

"That's going to be a big challenge for Keir Starmer, but I think, at the same time, both Lammy and Starmer have a desire to work with the US on these issues, and you see around the world, including with Arab countries, they show a degree of pragmatism on this front," Petillo said.

Dwindling foreign aid

UK aid spending, much of which goes to the Middle East, has decreased under the Conservatives. In 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson introduced a policy to cut foreign aid by £4 billion ($5.1 billion), from 0.7% to 0.5% of gross national income. Labour has pledged to bring it back to 0.7% but said they will only do so when the economic climate allows for it, Petillo said. She added that when it comes to foreign aid, Labour appears to have a more cohesive vision for the Middle East than the Conservatives did under Sunak, for whom domestic issues stole the agenda.

Starmer will also address migration differently from Sunak, though it is too early in his premiership to know how. One policy Starmer said he would end is the controversial Rwanda scheme enacted by Sunak to send illegal immigrants to the central African country. Although supporters argue the policy has been an effective deterrent to small boats crossing the Channel, its critics say it is inhumane, illegal, expensive and does little to deter immigration.

Although many of the fundamentals of UK Middle East policy are likely to stay the same under Starmer, there’s no doubt that Britain’s relationship with the region will shift a bit.