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随着阿萨德态度软化,土耳其和叙利亚的关系能否恢复正常?

随着土耳其与叙利亚关系正常化以及土耳其总统与叙利亚总统会晤的消息不断传出,许多战略和技术问题需要解决。

NICOSIA, CYPRUS - JULY 20: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks during celebrations marking the 50th anniversary of Turkey's invasion of Cyprus on July 20, 2024 in occupied northern Nicosia, Cyprus. Fifty years has passed since Turkey's invasion and occupation of northern Cyprus, spurred in 1974 by Greece's attempts to oust the Cypriot president and forge a political union with the island. Over time, the northern part became the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), which is largely populated
土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安在 2024 年 7 月 20 日于塞浦路斯被占领的北部尼科西亚举行的土耳其入侵塞浦路斯 50 周年庆祝活动上发表讲话。 — 亚历克西斯·米塔斯/盖蒂图片社

由于土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安一直公开寻求与大马士革进行对话,叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德似乎已经软化了语气,而阿萨德曾经要求土耳其军队撤出叙利亚,否则就无法开始任何直接谈判。

在叙利亚国内存在地缘政治风险的情况下,安卡拉与大马士革之间的和解迫在眉睫,尤其是叙利亚库尔德人努力巩固其在东北部和更广泛地区的事实上的自治权,例如加沙地带的战争以及以色列与伊朗支持的黎巴嫩和也门组织之间不断升级的紧张局势。

专家告诉 Al-Monitor,在影响土耳其与叙利亚关系正常化谈判的几个紧迫问题中,最棘手的将是土耳其在叙利亚的军队、土耳其支持的叙利亚反对派以及土耳其境内的叙利亚移民的未来。

解除西北部伊德利卜省圣战组织“解放叙利亚”(HTS)等组织的武装,以及东北部由美国支持、库尔德人领导的“叙利亚民主力量”(安卡拉认为后者是国家安全的最大威胁)的未来,成为两国首都之间最具挑战性的问题。

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