Intel: Why military confrontation between Turkey, Kurds in Syria might be good news for Russia

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s repeated threats to attack Kurdish forces in northeast Syria depend on Ankara’s ability to meet certain conditions if they’re to become reality. Several of these, particularly air support for the ground operation and the use of pro-Turkish Syrian opposition groups, are possible only through respective nods from Washington and Moscow. This comes as Washington and Ankara continue negotiations on a safe zone in northern Syria — talks that have made “important progress” in recent days, according to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Why it matters: Russia believes that both US support for the Kurds and Turkish support for Syrian opposition groups contribute to continued foreign interference in Syria and threaten the unity of the country. Moscow’s official position is that neither Washington nor Ankara have a legal basis for their military presence in Syria. Russia also accuses both parties of contributing to the looting of the country’s resources to buy the loyalty of local tribes in the Euphrates area. Nevertheless, Russia has been making deals with Turkey to help Ankara prepare for a potential assault in the northeast of Syria, including a recent — and tenuous — agreement to impose a temporary cease-fire in Idlib that would help Turkey free some Syrian opposition forces for their deployment to the Euphrates area.