Turkey’s military assault on Afrin, dubbed Operation Olive Branch, has tested the abilities of Moscow, Tehran and Ankara to keep the Astana process on track, with an increasing risk of major power conflict, as we explained here last week.
An Al-Monitor correspondent writes, “To Iran, Turkey’s intervention will only complicate the already complicated situation in Syria and weaken the Sochi peace process that already witnessed a major setback in the Jan. 28 meeting in Russia, when the majority of the Syrian opposition boycotted the conference. As such, a meeting between the presidents of Turkey, Russia and Iran is expected to take place in Istanbul to discuss the latest development, but a clear time frame for this meeting has yet to be set. The trilateral meeting will follow a similar meeting that took place in Sochi on Nov. 22, 2017, and laid the framework for cooperation between the three states on the Syrian crisis. According to an Iranian official who spoke on condition of anonymity, Tehran has advised Ankara to be aware of being dragged into a war of attrition in Afrin.”