US election drama raises stakes for Mideast economic powers eyeing 2025

A billion-dollar bet that could see the UAE become the Las Vegas of the Middle East is inching closer to reality: Emirati regulators awarded the country’s first lottery license on July 28, another step towards becoming the first Gulf state to legalize gambling. Of course, that move, like many others, was lost in an increasingly volatile news cycle and comes as Mideast powers are now hedging bets on an even bigger gamble that will shape their geopolitical and economic fortunes and futures: the US presidential election. 

A whirlwind July has upended American politics, with implications rippling far and wide — including the Middle East. As the prospects of a Kamala Harris or Donald Trump presidency come into clearer focus, we can already see how players like Israel, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are maneuvering around the upcoming election as they weigh how Washington’s foreign policy (and MAGAnomics or now potentially Kamalanomics) will impact their agendas as they navigate regional turmoil and shifting economic priorities.  

For instance, the very day Biden exited the race, July 21, Turkish media reported that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan believes a potential change in the US administration may be positive for Turkey's growing defense industry. That proclamation didn’t mention Trump, but other regional players are explicitly deepening ties with the former president with an eye on 2025.  

Case in point: July saw Gulf real estate developer Dar Global tout plans to build new Trump Towers in Jeddah and Dubai. They follow another Trump-branded project in Oman announced earlier this year and similar dealmaking appears poised to continue. Saudi Arabia is clearly on Trump’s mind. In an interview published by Bloomberg on July 16, the candidate made clear that relations with Riyadh remain a focal point despite competing interests: Asked if he worries that increasing US oil and gas production would upset the Saudis, Trump said no and pointed to his good relationship with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, while adding that he will “always protect” Saudi Arabia.