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Libya’s oil production unlikely to reach 2 million barrels per day ever again

Pro: Libya hopes to increase oil production to over 2 million barrels per day in the medium term. Here's why that is unlikely to happen. (subscriber only, access with free trial)

A picture taken on September 24, 2020 shows the Brega oil port in Marsa Brega, some 270kms west of Libya's eastern city of Benghazi. - Libyas state oil firm lifted force majeure on what it deemed secure oil ports and facilities on September 20, a day after strongman Khalifa Haftar said he was lifting a blockade on oilfields and ports. The blockade, which has resulted in more than $9.8 billion in lost revenue according to the state-run National Oil Corporation (NOC), has exacerbated electricity and fuel shor
To:

Al-Monitor Pro Members

From:

Gerald Kepes

President, Competitive Energy Strategies, LLC

Date:

Feb. 8, 2023

Bottom Line:

When reference is made to Libya’s upstream oil sector, “abundance,” “rich” and “leading” are the words often used. While true enough when referring to crude oil resources, this is not the same as crude oil production capacity. Libya’s current capacity to produce crude oil is about 1.2 million barrels per day (b/d). Farhat Bengdara, the head of Libya’s National Oil Company (NOC) toward the end of 2022 stated a desire to increase output to over 2 million b/d over the medium term. Wishing will not make it so.

Achievable success for Libya is more likely to look like 1.5 to 1.6 million b/d within five years and sustaining that for five years. But this is not a foregone conclusion.