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Analysis

Three years after Oct. 7, Hamas’ grip on Gaza tests Netanyahu’s ‘total victory’

Israeli intelligence assessments indicate that Hamas remains active, with the group estimated to have about 30,000 armed fighters, roughly the same as its estimated strength before the attack.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during the state memorial ceremony for the third anniversary of Oct. 7 attack, at Mount Herzl military cemetery, Jerusalem, Oct. 5, 2026.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during the state memorial ceremony for the third anniversary of Oct. 7 attack, at Mount Herzl military cemetery, Jerusalem, Oct. 5, 2026. — DEBBIE HILL / POOL / AFP via Getty Images

TEL AVIV — As Israel prepares to mark the third anniversary of the Oct. 7 Hamas assault, which triggered the country's longest war in decades, none of the goals set by the government in response has been achieved. 

With elections just three weeks away, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to pledge to voters that Israel will achieve objectives that have so far remained unmet.

Almost 500 Israeli soldiers and tens of thousands of Palestinians have been killed in the Gaza Strip during the war Israel launched in retaliation for the Oct. 7 attack, in which 250 people were taken hostage, most of them civilians. But Israeli intelligence assessments indicate that Hamas remains active, with the group estimated to have about 30,000 armed fighters, roughly the same as its estimated strength before the attack, Israeli security sources told Al-Monitor.

Hamas' enduring grip on power

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