How FlyDubai attack exposes gaps in Israel-UAE security ties

TEL AVIV — The attempted hijacking of a FlyDubai flight to Israel has exposed vulnerabilities in the security arrangements underpinning one of the most consequential relationships created by the Abraham Accords, even as Israeli officials say the incident is unlikely to cause lasting damage to ties with the United Arab Emirates.

The question of who is at fault for the FlyDubai incident, coupled with Israeli Transportation Minister Miri Regev's demand to halt all flights from the United Arab Emirates, could cast a shadow over Israeli-Emirati bilateral security cooperation in the coming days, Israeli security officials told Al-Monitor. Still, the officials believe that the incident is unlikely to harm the 2020 Abraham Accords in the long run, under which Israel and the UAE established diplomatic relations.

FlyDubai flights to Tel Aviv were suspended Thursday pending an investigation into Wednesday's incident, in which the copilot reportedly attempted to crash the aircraft en route to Israel. Arrangements are currently being made to return stranded Israelis from Dubai to Israel.

"In the medium and long term, security cooperation will only tighten," a senior Israeli official told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. "Fortunately, the UAE did not try to cover up the incident. They took responsibility for it and opened an investigation. We hope to be allowed to take part in this investigation so that we know exactly what happened and can plug the loophole that allowed the attack to occur," he added.

Diplomatic relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, officially established under the Abraham Accords 2020, encompass deep strategic, security and economic ties that have survived disagreements and regional tensions, including the Gaza war. During the Iran war, Israel supplied the UAE with Iron Dome batteries and personnel to help operate them. Netanyahu's office announced last May that the Israeli prime minister had visited Abu Dhabi and met with President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed. The Wall Street Journal reported the same month that then-Mossad chief David Barnea had visited the country at least twice, while Israel's Kan public broadcaster reported that Shin Bet chief David Zini had also visited the UAE.

"Our cooperation with our counterparts is excellent," an Israeli military source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. "Obviously, this incident is unpleasant for both sides, since we believed that our cooperation would ensure that we would not face such threats. But I believe we will overcome this," he said, adding that the security ties with the Emirates are some of Israel's most important strategic assets in the region.

Netanyahu election boost

Although the crisis has tested Israeli relations with the UAE, it has boosted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's campaign for the Oct. 27 elections. The copilot's plot to crash the Tel Aviv-bound flight and kill its 174 passengers, with several Israeli passengers helping to foil it, generated a wave of euphoria in Israel that Netanyahu was quick to capitalize on.

Tali Manes, an Israeli passenger who had taken her young daughter to the bathroom at the front of the plane, was the first to realize something was amiss when she heard shouting from the cockpit. She alerted other passengers and crew members. As she told Israeli news outlets, her shouts attracted her husband and three other passengers who stormed into the cockpit, subdued the copilot and tended to the injured captain, who had managed to unlock the cockpit door despite his severe wounds. After the copilot was apprehended, the plane was able to land safely in Saudi Arabia.

On Wednesday evening, Netanyahu rushed to the airport to welcome the returning passengers, and on Thursday he invited the Israeli passengers who intervened to his office, crediting them with preventing a grave disaster on the scale of 9/11.

"The entire world sees Israeli heroism," Netanyahu told them, promising that they would receive awards for their bravery.

Netanyahu succeeded in dominating the agenda for three precious campaign days. A poll published by Maariv Friday showed the gap between Netanyahu's bloc and the Zionist opposition bloc narrowing. Netanyahu's Likud rose to 19 seats, from 18 the previous week, while Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party fell to 21 seats, from 22.

The Israeli media has also focused on the warm treatment given by the Saudi authorities to passengers when the FlyDubai flight finally landed in Tabuk airport. While the Saudis rejected an Israeli request to allow an Israeli plane to land and pick up the passengers, those aboard commended the Saudis for their hospitality and care.

"Israel wanted to send military aircraft to Saudi Arabia to bring back the passengers. It would have offered Netanyahu an exceptional victorious image," said an Israeli diplomatic source. "The Saudis know very well that Netanyahu is in the midst of an electoral campaign. They had no intention of offering him such a gift," he added.

Motive unclear

Three days after the foiled attack, it remains unclear whether the copilot was motivated by personal radical beliefs or was on a mission sponsored by Iran or something else.

"We are looking into it. I assume we will know the answer soon. At the moment, there are no indications that this is an event planned in Iran or by any other terrorist headquarters with which we are familiar," a senior Israeli intelligence source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity.

According to Israeli security officials, the Mossad did not provide any warning of a planned hijacking, nor did the Shin Bet, the domestic security service responsible for security arrangements on flights to Israel.

They added that, in principle, the Transportation Ministry's security department was primarily responsible for the failure that allowed an Omani pilot to fly to Israel in violation of the aviation agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, which stipulates that flights to Israel may be operated only by pilots from countries with which Israel maintains diplomatic relations.

"Israel has been insisting since Wednesday on participating in the Emirati investigation, but we would have to conduct our own investigation at home as well, on all levels and involving all our security agencies," said the Israeli intelligence source, estimating that like the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas massacre in southern Israel, some senior security officers might have to take responsibility for what occurred.

"In Israel, we believe that Hamas wanted to undermine the Abraham Accords and prevent Saudi Arabia from joining them. It is our obligation to keep relations with the UAE intact and even strengthen them," concluded the Israeli diplomatic source. 

UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash called the event a “terrorist act,” making him the first Emirati official to use that designation.

“The Indian pilot at FlyDubai, Smit Machchhar, deserves every bit of appreciation, for he embodied the meaning of courage and responsibility in the face of a dangerous terrorist act and a potential disaster. His professionalism and moral sense in the darkest of circumstances make him a true hero,” Gargash wrote in a post on X.