As world awaits Israel's response to Iran, can US help stave off ‘all-out war’?

After Tehran fired nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel in response to recent assassinations targeting the leaders of Hezbollah, Hamas and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Israel has vowed a response. But what will that look like, and does the United States have leverage remaining to avoid an all-out war? 

Al-Monitor’s writers — reporting from Tel Aviv, Tehran, Washington and Dubai — bring you the latest on the recent escalation and its wide-ranging implications for the region.

From Tel Aviv: Bibi faces dilemma in responding to Iran’s missile salvo

This week, Ben Caspit has the scoop on the Israeli leadership’s latest thinking as it mulls a response to Iran’s Tuesday attack.

In the wake of the attack, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made it clear Israel would respond and seemed to directly threaten Iranian leaders, Caspit notes.

“Netanyahu said Iran had made a big mistake and would pay for it. ‘The Iranian regime does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and repay our enemies,’ he said, and went on to list the names of the Hamas and Hezbollah leaders assassinated by Israel in recent weeks, including Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah. ‘Apparently there are those in Tehran who still don't understand. They will,’ Netanyahu added.”

In determining a response, Caspit writes, Israel has four options.

“One is to attack Iran's oil industry, a relatively uncomplicated task with potentially significant results given the concentration of most oil facilities on the Persian Gulf’s Kharg Island. A second option is to harm symbols of the government and the regime, mainly but not only in Tehran. Israel could also target senior Iranian government officials, including the Islamic Republic’s leaders themselves. A fourth option would be the realization of Israel’s goal of attacking and destroying Iranian nuclear facilities and infrastructure,” Caspit says.

Regarding the first option, US President Joe Biden told reporters in off-the-cuff remarks Thursday that the United States was “in discussions” concerning whether it would support Israeli attacks on Iranian oil infrastructure.

And Jack Dutton reported Friday that “oil tankers waiting close to Iran’s biggest crude loading facility have left the area empty-handed in the days since Tehran fired 181 ballistic missiles at Israel Monday, amid vows from Israel to respond.”

Yet Caspit, citing diplomatic sources, reports that "in overnight contacts with Israel, US officials urged Israel to limit its response to dimensions that would allow Iran to contain it. They apparently ruled out support for an Israeli attack on the Iranian oil industry, fearing it would result in reciprocal Iranian damage to the oil and gas facilities of Israel's partners in the region and lead to a global energy crisis, raising energy costs potentially harmful to Kamala Harris’ presidential bid a month before the elections.”

Netanyahu faces the dilemma of balancing public pressure to respond forcefully while also preventing escalation to the point of an all-out war.

“The question is how to do it without taking too many risks. Instigating an all-out war against Iran would be an unprecedented and ill-calculated risk. Still, this possibility cannot be dismissed,” Caspit concludes.

From Tehran: In Doha visit, Pezeshkian looks to isolate Israel

Our correspondent in Tehran reports on Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s visit this week to Doha, where he sat down with top Qatari and Saudi officials and attended a summit of the Asian Cooperation Dialogue just days after Iran’s missile attack.

“Pezeshkian's two-day visit occurs at a key moment in regional diplomacy amid rising tensions stemming from the ongoing Gaza war and the Israeli incursion into Lebanon as part of its campaign against the Tehran-backed Hezbollah movement,” our correspondent writes.

“Expected on Pezeshkian's Doha agenda are discussions on both conflicts, as Iran has been engaged in a regional and global diplomatic push to seize the opportunity to rally pressure on Israel. Pezeshkian's diplomacy will reflect Iran's concerns about a wider conflict, involving Lebanon and a host of region-wide Tehran-backed proxies.”

From Washington: US braces for Israel’s response, moves goalposts on containing war

Elizabeth Hagedorn reports from Washington on concerns among US officials that Israel’s response could ignite a broader regional war that the administration has spent the last year trying to stave off.

While the US president has said the administration is discussing Israel’s response, Hagedorn notes that “Biden's sway over Israeli decision-making is far from clear.”

“As Netanyahu has defied US calls for restraint in the Gaza Strip and more recently, Lebanon, the once-cordial relationship between the two leaders has grown increasingly frayed. Netanyahu and Biden haven’t spoken since the Iranian attack, with August being the last time the White House issued a readout of a call between them,” she notes.

As Iran issued threats to any country that “renders assistance” to Israel, “the coming Israeli response has put further pressure on the Biden administration, which has backed the Jewish state's right to defend itself but is concerned a major escalation risks undermining US-led calls for a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon,” she adds.

Meanwhile, Jared Szuba writes that while preventing the spread of war between Israel and militant groups to fronts beyond Gaza has been a US policy priority for the past year, Israeli forces have now pushed into Lebanon with Washington’s green light.

Two well-placed officials, one in the US and one regional, told Szuba that while the White House has publicly been stressing the importance of diplomacy, “both [NSC coordinator Brett] McGurk and [special envoy Amos] Hochstein in recent weeks have characterized Israel’s escalation against Hezbollah as a strategic opportunity to reset the chessboard in Israel’s favor.”

From Dubai: Amid threat of Israeli response, Saudi Arabia seeks assurances from Iran

Jennifer Gnana reports from Dubai that Gulf states are continuing to assess the broader regional spillover from Tehran’s escalation with Israel, as Gulf leaders gathered in Qatar for an Asian Cooperation Dialogue meeting that included Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Just two days after Iran launched its missile salvo, Pezeshkian met in Doha with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan and Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani.

“We intend to close the book on disagreements with Iran forever and develop relations between us like two friends,” the Saudi foreign minister noted.

While Iran and Saudi Arabia buried the hatchet in 2023 following a Chinese-mediated rapprochement, Gnana reports that “Gulf states remain spooked by comments made by Biden that Israel is in discussions to attack Iranian oil installations. Gulf leaders worry that their own energy assets now may be exposed to Iranian tit-for-tat proxy attacks by Houthis.”

The Houthis in 2019 targeted Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq and Khurais facilities, temporarily halving the kingdom's oil output. 

"I would assume they are offering something to the Iranians in return, perhaps investment or other economic concession," Barbara Slavin, of the Stimson Center, told Gnana.