Iran-Russia: a growing alliance that rattles the West
The burgeoning alliance between Iran and Russia, which has already seen Tehran assist Moscow in its war against Ukraine, is increasingly troubling the West as tensions reach new highs in the Middle East.
The Islamic republic and Russia have in the last months put aside centuries of regional rivalry going back to the imperial era to focus on a shared confrontation with the West.
In a new symbol of their relationship, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian is due to meet Russian leader Vladimir Putin on Friday in Turkmenistan for their first face-to-face meeting and is also due to visit Russia later in the month.
The West accuses Iran of supplying Russia with lethal drones and now ballistic missiles, cheap and readily available weapons that are playing a crucial role in supplying the Russian war machine in the invasion of Ukraine.
But with Iran and Israel now risking a descent into a spiral of retaliatory strikes, the alliance could yet grow even tighter as both Tehran and Moscow seek a way out of international isolation.
"The transfer of ballistic missiles points to a deepening defence partnership that extends beyond drones and now includes more advanced weaponry," Nicole Grajewski, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told AFP.
Western countries have accused Iran of delivering Fath-360 ballistic missiles to Russia which are believed to have a range of about 120 kilometres (75 miles) and that the US fears would allow Russians to reserve more advanced missiles with longer ranges for other uses.
A senior Western official, asking not to be named, said "we just don't know at this point" if the Middle East tensions will further ramp up the dynamics of Iranian deliveries.
- 'Reliant on each other' -
Russia, which built Iran's first nuclear energy plant, was among the world powers behind a 2015 deal on the Iranian nuclear programme aimed at preventing Tehran from obtaining the atomic bomb.
The accord fell apart when Donald Trump took the US out of the agreement with the fear now that Russia will no longer pressure Iran to rein in its nuclear ambitions and could encourage Tehran and even assist with know-how.
"Given Russia's dependence on Tehran for armed drones and other assistance in its war against Ukraine, Washington cannot expect Moscow to join renewed efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons," the US think tank Atlantic Council said in a recent report.
"Indeed, the Putin regime might even welcome the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran for distracting US and other Western countries from its war against Ukraine," it added.
The relationship has expanded into multilateral forums, with Pezeshkian due to attend the October summit in the Russian city of Kazan of the Russia and China-led BRICS group of emerging economies that Tehran joined this year.
Putin also was granted a meeting with Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a visit to Tehran in July 2022, a rare honour for a visiting non-Muslim foreign leader.
Both Russian and Iranian leaders face sensitive domestic contexts, with the Kremlin acutely watching Russian public opinion as the war drags on and Khamenei vigilant over any re-emergence of the nationwide protests that erupted in Iran in September 2022.
"The relationship runs much deeper than transactional ties, Russia and Iran are now increasingly reliant on each other," said Grajewski, author of a book on Russia and Iran subtitled "Partners in Defiance from Syria to Ukraine".
"Additionally, both Russia and Iran see themselves reliant on one another for their regime survival," she added.
- 'Compartmentalise tensions' -
The history of regional rivalry between imperial Iran and Russia in the Caspian region, Caucasus and Central Asia -- part of the so-called "Great Game" in the 19th century -- cannot be wiped away so easily.
One of the most emblematic moments of this rivalry was the 1829 killing aged just 34 of the Russian playwright Alexander Griboyedov, who had been sent as ambassador to Iran, by an angry mob in Tehran, a murder which is remembered in Russia to this day.
The latest example of this are tensions between Iran and Russia over a plan by Azerbaijan and Turkey for a land link across the southern Caucasus known as the Zangezur corridor linking the Caspian to Turkey whose route along the Iranian border has left Tehran bristling.
Tehran also wants more from the relationship, eyeing Russian Sukhoi fighter jets to update its ageing air force fleet. But these have yet to be delivered despite Iranian reports a deal has been agreed.
But both sides have been eager to defuse tensions, with Russia's national security council chief Sergei Shoigu and Iranian counterpart Ali Ahmadian engaging in energetic shuttle diplomacy.
Grajewski said: "Of course there are tensions in the relationship... But it is a testament to their ability to compartmentalise relations."
