Is Canada's partial arms suspension to Israel symbolic or consequential?

Canada became the latest country after Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, the United Kingdom and other European nations to announce the suspension of select arms sales permits to Israel, in a bid to pressure Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government to reach an agreement on a cease-fire in the war against Hamas in Gaza. Experts argue, however, that the decision will have little to no impact on Israel given the limited scope of the defense ties between the two. 

What happened: Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly announced Sept. 10 that Ottawa had suspended 30 permits for arms sales to Israel and canceled a contract with a wholly owned subsidiary of the US-based General Dynamics Corporation to sell ammunition made in Quebec to the Israeli army.  

Speaking at a Liberal Party caucus retreat in British Columbia, Joly did not mince words when referring to the $61 million ammunition sale by General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems Canada.

“As for the question regarding General Dynamics, our policy is clear,” she said. “We will not have any form of arms, or parts of arms, be sent to Gaza. Period. How they’re being sent and where they’re being sent is irrelevant. And so therefore, my position is clear, the position of the government is clear, and we’re in contact with General Dynamics.”

Al-Monitor has contacted General Dynamics for comment.

Canada’s decision came after the United Kingdom announced on Sept. 2 that it would suspend 30 of the government’s 350 arms export licenses to Israel, noting, "This is not a blanket ban, this is not an arms embargo." 

A day after the UK decision, Netanyahu called it “shameful” and stressed the move would only "embolden Hamas."

Canada's decision follows Britain’s lead, which suspended 30 of approximately 350 licenses to Israel. The UK government concluded that there was a clear risk that certain military exports to Israel could be used to violate international humanitarian law in Gaza. The move to suspend the licenses comes after a review of all of the military contracts Britain had with the Middle Eastern country.

The British and Canadian governments' recent decisions are at odds with the United States, which reportedly warned London privately against taking such a step. The Times of London cited an unnamed UK minister saying the Americans argued that suspending arms licenses might negatively affect the ongoing cease-fire and hostage-deal negotiations.

What will be the impact: According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), some 99% of Israel’s military imports between 2019 and 2023 come from the United States (69%) and Germany (30%). Before Oct. 7, Washington was annually exporting around $3 billion of military equipment to Israel. 

SIPRI calculates that between 2019 and 2023, Canadian arms exports represented only 0.05% of Israel’s total arms imports. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom only exported 18.2 million pounds ($22.77 million) of military hardware to Israel in 2023, compared to 42 million pounds ($55 million) in 2022, according to the UK Department for Business and Trade.

Nimrod Goren, senior fellow for Israeli affairs at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, said Canada's decision is not expected to have a significant impact on Israel's capacity to conduct military operations in Gaza and beyond. 

"However, when coupled with steps taken by other countries, it promotes the mainstreaming of the idea of arms supply limitations and the notion that ties with Israel should not continue unchanged. This may spill over to additional countries, which may take measures of their own, soon or after possible decisions by the international courts in The Hague," he told Al-Monitor.

Goren also said that Canada's action, like the UK's, will not change Israeli thinking on a cease-fire. 

"Real leverage on Israel currently exists in Washington, DC, but over the last months, American diplomacy did not utilize it in a way that changed Netanyahu's calculations and did not succeed in getting Israel and Hamas to agree to a cease-fire and hostage release deal," he concluded.

Canada has long had good relations with Israel. Trade ties between the two countries is significant: Canadian exports to Israel were $315.24 million in 2023, according to UN data. Meanwhile, Canada's imports from Israel amounted to about $1.07 billion. In 2018, both countries signed and expanded a bilateral free trade agreement and established an industrial research and development foundation to finance scientific research cooperation between the two nations.

More than 41,000 Palestinians have been killed in the Israeli military offensive launched after Hamas militants killed around 1,200 people in southern Israel and took some 240 others hostage on Oct. 7. Attempts at a sustainable cease-fire continue to fail, as the conflict approaches the one-year mark.