How US election results will shape Middle East aid in 2025

Megan Mineiro

Aug 2, 2024

Palestinians carry bags of flour provided as aid to poor families at the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) distribution center, in the Al-Shati refugee camp in Gaza city on June 5, 2023. — MAHMUD HAMS/AFP via Getty Images

The US Congress is once again hurtling toward a missed deadline and drawn out negotiations on government funding, including money for US diplomatic operations and foreign aid programs in the Middle East.

The showdown is expected to play out after the November elections.

Lawmakers are leaving Washington this week for the summer break. Both chambers could make marginal progress on the 12 spending bills, including the State and Foreign Operations bill to fund the State Department and the US Agency for International Development (USAID), when they return to Capitol Hill in early September. But the final fiscal 2025 package is likely to be negotiated and passed after the next Congress is sworn into office in January 2025.

If voters elect another divided government, that could mean months of grueling budget talks before government funding is finalized. But if Republicans win control of both chambers and former President Donald Trump retakes the White House, far-right priorities for the Middle East could find their way into the final government funding package. In the meantime, funds run out on Oct. 1, meaning lawmakers will need to pass a temporary funding bill to avoid a shutdown.