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Analysis

Hezbollah's attack disappoints Hamas but averts all-out war with Israel

Both Israel and Hezbollah have signaled that Sunday’s exchange of fire is over, at least for the moment.

TOPSHOT - This photo taken from a position in northern Israel shows a Hezbollah UAV intercepted by Israeli air forces over north Israel on August 25, 2024. The Israeli military announced early August 25, 2024 that it was conducting pre-emptive strikes in Lebanon after detecting preparations for "large-scale" attacks by the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah. Hezbollah said it had launched more than 320 rockets at Israel overnight, targeting a string of military positions, even as Israel's military said it
This photo taken from a position in northern Israel shows a Hezbollah drone intercepted by Israeli air defense over northern Israel on Aug. 25, 2024. — JALAA MAREY/AFP via Getty Images

TEL AVIV — Israel and Hezbollah are both claiming success in Sunday’s cross-border clashes and breathing a sigh of relief that the damage was limited and did not spill over into regional war.

Two days after Al-Monitor cited a top Israeli official as assessing that Israel was “within touching distance” of a preemptive strike against Hezbollah that could precipitate a regional war, 100 Israeli fighter jets simultaneously attacked some 40 sites in southern Lebanon, destroying hundreds of Hezbollah launchers with a capacity of 6,000 missiles, according to the Israeli military. Israel said the launchers as well as drones were primed to launch just 15 minutes later, at 5:00 a.m. At 5.30, Hezbollah fired over 300 rockets and missiles as well as some 20 drones at Israel.

By 7:00 a.m., Israel had intercepted 90% of the incoming projectiles in an impressive intelligence coup and subsequent pinpoint airstrikes, disrupting Hezbollah's plans for a far more extensive attack. Hezbollah, for its part, claimed it had avenged Israel’s July 30 assassination of military commander Fuad Shukr as planned. 

But the early morning bombings and missiles crisscrossing the skies over the region initially seemed to presage the worst fears of Washington and its regional allies. Israel shut down its main airport and urged Israelis to remain close to shelters. Two hours after the last Israeli fighter jet landed, the all-clear sounded. Israelis went about their business, relieved that tense weeks of waiting for the threatened Hezbollah and Iranian retaliation were over. Villagers in southern Lebanon were told they could return to their homes, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said. As he confirmed in an early evening speech, the group had decided on a limited reprisal that damaged a few homes in the northern Israeli town of Acre but failed to inflict casualties.

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