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Analysis

US, Iran guarantors of shaky deterrence between Israel and Hezbollah

Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah is not ready to go to the mattresses over the killing of another senior commander on Wednesday, and Iran doesn't want a war while it favors the threat of confrontation as a deterrent.
A portrait of Musa al-Sadr sits amid the rubble of a destroyed building in the heavily damaged, Hezbollah stronghold town of Aita al Chaab on June 29, 2024 in Aita al Chaab, Lebanon. Hezbollah and the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have been trading cross-border fire since the October 7 attacks, with the conflict escalating in May when the group launched a missile-carrying drone against Israel for the first time. The conflict intensified in June when Hezbollah fired hundreds of rockets and drones at Israeli m

Military tit-for-tat risky new normal on border

Hezbollah launched 100 rockets into Israel on Wednesday in retaliation for a strike that killed one of its senior commanders in Tyre, Lebanon.

The response may be more deterrence than escalation, although the lines have become dangerously blurred.  

While Hezbollah believes it must show the will to fight — especially when Israel takes out one of its key commanders — it is also avoiding the tripwire for an all-out war. 

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