Will Israel's far right topple government over Biden's Gaza proposal?

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under increasing pressure by his far-right coalition partners to reject a hostage release and cease-fire proposal revealed by President Joe Biden on Friday, facing threats that they will quit the government.

Netanyahu has released several statements since Biden announced the parameters of an initial six-week cease-fire on Friday, offering tepid support for the proposal while also saying that Israel will not end the war until Hamas is defeated in Gaza. 

Amid mounting pressure from the far right, according to Israel's Channel 12, Netanyahu reportedly told Knesset members at a closed-door meeting of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that “The proposal that Biden presented is incomplete,” adding, “The war will stop in order to bring hostages back, and afterward we will hold discussions. There are other details that the US president did not present to the public.”

The proposal on the table includes three phases, according to the communications put out by the White House. The first, set to last six weeks, would see women, elderly and wounded hostages released in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners incarcerated in Israel. The Israeli military will cease fire and withdraw from urban zones and Gazans would be allowed to return to the north of the Strip. 

During this period, the parties would negotiate the exact parameters of the second phase, which would see the release of the other hostages, soldiers, in return for a long-term cease-fire. Of the roughly 120 hostages remaining in Gaza, Israel says it has confirmed that 37 are dead, though officials say that number is likely higher. The third phase would see the return of bodies held on both sides and the reconstruction of Gaza. 

The proposal has been presented and approved by Israel's smaller war cabinet. Israel’s public broadcaster Kan revealed Sunday that Netanyahu refused requests by the wider security cabinet to divulge all the details of the proposed deal, fearing that the details could be leaked by the media.

"Hamas confirms its readiness to deal positively and in a constructive manner with any proposal that is based on the permanent ceasefire and the full withdrawal [of Israeli forces] from the Gaza Strip, the reconstruction [of Gaza], and the return of the displaced to their places, along with the fulfillment of a genuine prisoner swap deal if the occupation clearly announces commitment to such deal," Hamas said in a statement Friday.

Ben-Gvir, Smotrich threaten to quit

Anticipating the reactions of his far-right partners Friday, Netanyahu's office stressed that the new proposal would enable Israel to reach its war objectives, saying in a statement, "The prime minister authorized the negotiating team to present an outline to reach this mission, while insisting that the war would not end until all our goals are met. These include bringing back our hostages and eliminating the military and governing capabilities of Hamas."

Shortly after Biden’s announcement, several cabinet ministers came out against the plan. 

Hard-line Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said Friday, "I spoke with the prime minister and made it clear that I will not be part of a government that would agree to the outline presented, ending the war without the destruction of Hamas and without bringing back all the hostages." 

On Sunday, Smotrich met with the rabbis who advise his Religious Zionism party to discuss whether to stay in the government should the proposed deal advance, reported Kan.

Later on Monday, Smotrich accused the war cabinet of "dangerous management" of the situation. Addressing members of the right-wing Gvura Forum, Smotrich said, "If the government decides to adopt this proposal and surrender, we will not be part of it and we will act to replace the failing leadership with a new one." Smotrich added, "I told the prime minister, we, together with the bereaved families and most of the people of Israel, will stand by your side all the way to victory, but will stand against you with all our force if you choose surrender and defeat.

Ben-Gvir, who heads the nationalist Jewish Power faction, also threatened to walk out should the proposal be accepted, stating, "If the prime minister executes the reckless deal under the conditions published today, which mean the end of the war and giving up on eliminating Hamas, Jewish Power will dissolve the government."

After meeting with the Israeli premier on Monday, Ben-Gvir accused Netanyahu of "whitewashing" the details of the latest proposal. “I asked him if I could look at the draft of the agreement, and he agreed and said that I could come to his office so that I could see the draft with my own eyes,” Ben Gvir told reporters, adding that he was told by Netanyahu's aides that “there is no draft” to look at. 

Could Netanyahu’s government fall?

Netanyahu could indeed face a choice between reaching a hostage deal and preserving his government. 

It is unclear how real the far right's threat to leave the government is. As Netanyahu's coalition is the most right-wing in Israel’s political history, it would be difficult for the parties to explain to their electorates why they toppled it if doing so would prompt new elections. 

A poll published last Friday shows that Netanyahu is getting stronger, but would not retain a Knesset majority if the two far-right parties, which together hold 13 seats, leave the government, undercutting Netanyahu's 64-seat majority in the 120-seat chamber. 

Religious Zionism and Jewish Power ran on one ticket in the last elections, but it is unclear if the sides could reach a similar agreement next time around. The latest poll predicted that Smotrich's Religious Zionism would get four Knesset seats, the minimum threshold for Knesset entry, but prior polls gave it lower scores. 

Political safety net

If Netanyahu goes ahead with the deal, he might find not only the far right, but also members of his own Likud party against him.

Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli said Sunday, "There are certain conditions that we cannot accept, namely ending the war while Hamas still functions as a military and political group. That is impossible." He went on, "This is not a deal, but a joke. Nazi Germany and Japan surrendered on their knees, and so should Hamas."

Since Oct. 7, opposition leader Yair Lapid has been calling for new elections, blaming Netanyahu’s government for enabling the assault of Hamas with a series of military, intelligence and diplomatic failures. Still, Lapid has also stressed on multiple occasions that his Yesh Atid party would offer Netanyahu a safety net if needed to reach a hostage deal and support Netanyahu should the far right try to disperse the Knesset in an effort to block a deal.

Meanwhile, Benny Gantz, a former IDF chief and opposition figurehead who joined an emergency wartime government in October, recently set June 8 as the deadline for Netanyahu to present a plan for postwar governance of the Gaza Strip or he would quit the government.