Hezbollah, Israel not seeking full-blown war but risk of miscalculation at peak

TEL AVIV — Even as Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant was holding talks in Washington about the spiraling tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, officials in the region warned that all-out war between the sides appears increasingly inevitable.

"Conventional wisdom has it that Israel and Hezbollah are not interested in an all-out war, nor do they fear it," a senior diplomatic source in the Middle East told Al-Monitor this week on condition of anonymity. “I’m not sure that’s a precise assessment. Both countries [the source is referring to Hezbollah as a country] know they cannot win such a war, that they will suffer damage immeasurably greater than anything they have experienced so far and that their two leaders will draw enormous criticism." 

Describing Hezbollah as a country reflects Israel’s view of the Iran-backed militia as well. "As far as military power and especially missile and rocket arrays are concerned," a senior Israeli military source recently told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, "Hezbollah is not only a country, it is approaching the rank of a superpower. Not many countries in the world have a larger and more diverse arsenal in terms of missiles and rockets." 

According to estimates by Israeli security experts published by the Institute for National Security Studies, Hezbollah possesses advanced Iranian-made weapons, including drones and precision missiles, including about 30,000 rockets with a range of about 200 kilometers (124 miles), thousands more rockets with a range of about 300 kilometers (186 miles) and Scud missiles. Thus, in an all-out-war, it could reach as far as Tel Aviv and the central Israeli cities, paralyzing the lives of millions of Israelis and leaving a major economic impact on country's infrastructure. Hezbollah said in mid-June it has carried out more than 2,100 military operations against Israel since Oct. 8.