Since the helicopter crash that killed Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, China has been closely watching the development in Iran’s domestic politics. The most significant question is: Who will Raisi’s successor be? In China, it is widely acknowledged that the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, will be in firm control of the future domestic and foreign policy directions of Iran, regardless of who wins in the June 28 election. However, the next president of Iran will hold sway in the country's foreign policy strategies, including in its relationship with China.
China is most concerned with whether the next president will maintain Iran's anti-West, anti-US position while also pursuing a stronger economic relationship with Beijing. That position has been the anchor of the bilateral alignment between Beijing and Tehran and the shared vision that laid the foundation for the cooperation and collaboration between China, Russia and Iran as a counter to Western influence. In this sense, maybe no presidential candidate would be able to override any policy determined by Khamenei, but his political conviction will inevitably affect the Chinese calculus and therefore the scope and depth of the China-Iran cooperation.
Such is the case with former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. When the news first emerged that he was seeking reelection again in late May, it created some excitement, but mostly a sense of concern in China. The Chinese have always seen Ahmadinejad as an “anti-US warrior,” and his reelection will create bigger headache for the United States and is welcome news for China. With him disqualified, less radical policy can be expected from the remaining six candidates.
What China wants
