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Analysis

With popularity on rise, can Israel's Netanyahu ditch Gantz, wait for Trump?

Netanyahu no longer needs the opposition's Benny Gantz to stay in the war cabinet, but a ruling on ultra-Orthodox military service could spell danger even as he hopes for a Trump victory in November.
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a ceremony marking Holocaust Remembrance Day for the six million Jews killed during World War II, at the Yad Vashem Holocaust Memorial in Jerusalem on May 5, 2024. (Photo by Menahem Kahana / AFP) (Photo by MENAHEM KAHANA/AFP via Getty Images)

TEL AVIV — Fighting on two fronts — against the Biden administration and his partners in the war cabinet — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has chosen to focus on his own political survival and exacerbate the battles

Israeli National security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi said this week that the war against Hamas in Gaza would continue for another seven months, at the least, until the end of the year. His assessment that it will take many more months for Israeli forces to strip Hamas of its military capabilities is not surprising, in part due to Hamas returning to formerly cleared areas. More so, however, according to Netanyahu's critics, the prime minister needs to prolong the war as long as necessary to extend his political survival. 

Playing for time, waiting for Trump

To understand Hanegbi's seven-month time frame, one need only look at the presidential election calendar in the United States. Seven months from now, in January 2025, the Israeli right may get its wish of Donald Trump returning to the White House. A change of administration is a cornerstone in Netanyahu's struggle for survival. What seemed unbelievable after the unprecedented Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel, which occurred on the current prime minister's watch, now appears somewhat feasible almost eight months on. 

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