VIENNA — Despite Iran’s increasing oil sales abroad, a diplomatic advance between Tehran and Washington before the 2024 US election wouldn’t flood the market, analysts told Al-Monitor.
As hopes for a return to the 2015 nuclear deal fade, the two longtime foes are said to be considering a lesser, potentially unwritten understanding to cool tensions. It could possibly include a prisoner exchange between Tehran and Washington. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has stressed that while Washington is considering "diplomatic paths," he emphasized "there is no agreement in the offing."
There is interest on both sides in forging some type of understanding. US President Joe Biden would like to avert a major crisis with Iran running up to the 2024 election as he campaigns for a second term. A new arrangement with Tehran would avoid that danger and open the possibility of a revised nuclear deal in the future. Former President Donald Trump, who famously withdrew from the accord in 2018, is the Republican front runner to challenge Biden for the presidency.
But on Monday US special envoy for Iran Robert Malley was suspended pending an investigation into his handling of classified documents, throwing a shadow of doubt over the talks.
