The Takeaway: April 22, 2020

1. Israel-Palestine: ‘Government of Mutual Paralysis’ agrees on annexation

The COVID-19 crisis has spawned an unlikely partnership between Israel’s two Benjamins, Bibi Netanyahu and Benny Gantz, and according to Ben Caspit, they apparently have agreed on possible steps to annex parts of the West Bank containing Jewish settlements.

Here’s the deal: According to the coalition agreement between the “co-prime ministers,” either Netanyahu’s Likud or Gantz’s Blue and White party can introduce legislation to proceed with annexation parts of the West Bank after July 1. The only other issue that has the legislative green light in the Knesset, or parliament, according to the agreement, relates to COVID-19, the disease that so effectively shut down the country and made clear that another election was off the table.

‘Slap in the face’ to Arab Joint List: The COVID-19 crisis won’t keep the politics of the new alliance from creating a political crisis. Daoud Kuttab writes that “the head of the Arab Joint List, [Ayman Odeh] which had recommended Gantz to become prime minister, expressed disappointment and frustration, calling the deal a ‘slap in the face’ to the majority of Israelis.” Also in the hot seat is Jordan, the country most at risk from annexation.

It may be up to Trump: The coalition agreement references the Trump administration’s Peace to Prosperity plan. “The key lies in Washington,” writes Caspit, “specifically in the hands of President Donald Trump. July puts Trump four months away from the US presidential elections, not the best time to alienate his evangelical base and reject its dictates. Netanyahu hopes to use the achievement to carve his name in the annals of Israel’s political right. Gantz and [new Israeli Foreign Minister Gabi] Ashkenazi are hoping they can stop him once the price of such annexation becomes clear.”

2. Syria: Astana trio focuses on Idlib, where Erdogan is feeling the heat to crack down on terrorists

The foreign ministers of the so-called Astana trio — Russia, Iran and Turkey — named after the initial summit on Syria held in Kazakhstan in 2017 — held a virtual meeting April 22 to discuss Syria, including Idlib, where Syrian and Turkish forces are at a standoff following a cease-fire brokered between Russia and Turkey March 5.

Diplomatic flurry: The session today follows a noteworthy diplomatic flurry over the last 48 hours. Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke about Syria with his Iranian and Turkish counterparts April 21, just one day after Iran Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif met with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus. These guys don’t get together just to talk about their children and grandchildren; something may be in the works.

More of the same for Turkey on Idlib: A Russian readout of the Astana session notes the usual talking points, including “the relevance of further efforts to separate the moderate opposition in the Idlib area from the terrorists.” Under the September 2018 Sochi agreement, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to implement a plan to neutralize terrorist groups in Idlib, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is recognized by both the United States and the UN Security Council as a terrorist organization.

Betting on the impossible? Erdogan has so far been unable, and maybe at times unwilling, to break off and reorganize “moderate” armed elements from the HTS-led jihadi gangs that rule Idlib under Turkish proxy forces. Turkey’s latest approach might have a pulse, or not. “Turkey is in a position to impose its terms,” writes Fehim Tastekin, “as all groups in ‘liberated’ Idlib know the end of the road is near. Still, the plan for an integrated army is a tall task. Creating an army from predominantly jihadi factions that are ideologically troublesome and steeped in bad blood is betting on the impossible. Turkey has failed to prevent fighting between allied militias, even in regions under its control.”

Iran and Russia compete for influence with Russian military: Moscow and Tehran may have different approaches to dealing with Assad’s military forces. The Russian military “seeks to establish belts of influence in Syria is the creation and support of loyalist militia units,” writes Anton Mardasov. “But despite superficial efforts to centralize Syrian armed structures, Russia is actually contributing to their disintegration. Iran, for its part, is trying to integrate the militias into the permanent military structures of the Syrian army.”

Read more: Khaled al-Khateb reports here on what’s happening among HTS and jihadi factions in Idlib.

3. Gulf: How will ‘Bloody Monday’ affect energy producers?

Between East and West: The freefall in oil futures prices to as much as negative $40 on “Bloody Monday,” April 20, is hitting Gulf energy producers hard, and affecting future plans.

“The longer-term risk to energy producers in the Gulf,” Karen Young writes, “is that they will be trapped between a political standoff with an angry White House and members of Congress, and unreliable economic partners to the East. And it may be only time — not governments or cartels — that can calm oil markets.”

Gulf migrant workers with nowhere to go: The economic slowdown as a result of COVID-19 has also led to millions of migrant South Asian workers being laid off, with uncertainty about when, if ever, these jobs will return, as well as the more acute challenges of repatriation given travel restrictions. Sabena Siddiqi has the story here.

UAE offers Islamic lottery

The UAE had its first lottery drawing April 18, for $9.5 million. The Emirates Loto, Kim Kelaita reports, is "the region’s first fatwa-approved, fully digital collectable scheme with an optional entry to a weekly live draw." Read about it here.