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Avoiding the 'disaster scenario' in Lebanon

Lebanon at a crossroad: in the best-case scenario Lebanon would see a new president who forms a new government, while in a worst-case scenario no president is elected and the government does not enjoy parliament's confidence.
Newly elected Lebanese Prime Minister Tammam Salam speaks during an interview with Reuters at his home in Beirut April 7, 2013. Salam was named prime minister on Saturday after he won a sweeping parliamentary endorsement, pledging to bridge the country's deep divisions and shield it from the dangers of neighbouring Syria's civil war. REUTERS/ Jamal Saidi  (LEBANON - Tags: POLITICS HEADSHOT) - RTXYC29
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Political crises are measured by several criteria, one of which is time. It is rare for a political crisis to be measured by the number of days it lasts, but this is what's happening in Lebanon today.

If we want to know the seriousness of the government crisis and if we are to predict where Lebanon will be in a few weeks, months or even years, and also if we want to predict the prospects for regime change in the next phase, then we have to consider how many days Tammam Salam’s government — which was formed on Feb. 15 — may last.

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