US Iraq Envoy Sees 'Great Deal of Continuity' From Bush to Obama In an exit interview, departing US Iraq envoy James Jeffrey tells Al-Monitor's Laura Rozen how negotiations for a US follow-on force in Iraq ran aground, about prospects for diplomacy with Iran and how the Obama and Bush administrations are alike in their policies to Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan in many respects. Iraq
Does Kurdish Crude Mean Kurdish Statehood? Recent events in Iraq and the region have renewed speculation about Kurdish statehood. Some say that oil profits in the north will provide the leverage needed for independence, or that a Kurdish state will emerge from Syria's political vacuum. Denise Natali writes that these claims ignore regional geopolitics, and predicts ongoing political limbo. Turkey
Is the Islamic Republic of Iran On Its Last Elected President? Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wants to eliminate the elected Iranian presidency, writes Yasmin Alem. The move could resolve a two-decade-long power struggle between the two most powerful men in Iran — the Supreme Leader and the president — by giving Khamenei much more control over the executive office in a new, parliamentary system. Iran
The Secret History of America’s Thirty-Year Conflict with Iran A new book by David Crist on the long confrontation between the US and Iran blames the George W. Bush administration for squandering opportunities to improve relations with Tehran, writes Barbara Slavin. The DOD historian includes accounts of infighting in the administration over Iran, as well as bad blood between France and the US. Iran
Egypt's Copts to Pick a New Pope Amid Shifting Political Landscape As Egypt’s Coptic Church selects a new pope, it also faces a changing political scene in which Islamists dominate the government. The new church leader "will have to play a balancing act," one observer notes. Meanwhile, Copts still face sporadic sectarian violence. A recent incident involved a Christian dry cleaner allegedly burning a Muslim's shirt. Originals
For Many Assad Supporters, Other Paths Appear Riskier Syrians opposed to Assad’s rule often get more media attention, but a visit to Damascus shows that a sizeable — and perhaps decisive — part of the population supports, or at least doesn’t resist, his remaining in power. Some even blame parents who bring their children to protests — to “get shot and killed” — for fueling violence. Syria
US Courts Emerging Leaders in Syria to Avoid Iraq Pitfalls As the US scrambles to establish ties with the Syrian opposition, it's also trying hard to avoid an exile-centric strategy that risks repeating the debacle of Iraq, write Al-Monitor's Barbara Slavin and Laura Rozen. Still, on the heels of Kofi Annan's resignation as UN envoy to Syria, some insiders wonder if a transition plan will make any difference. Syria
Exit of Kofi Annan Augurs Rough Ride Ahead for Syria Aaron David Miller writes that the resignation of UN special envoy Kofi Annan marks the death of all hope for diplomatic solution. We're now in for a prolonged period of confrontation between a weakening but powerful regime and an opposition that can't deal it a fatal blow. When Assad does fall, then the real struggle for Syria will begin. Syria
Syria: The Cadence of War The daily rhythm of life in Syria goes on as it must, writes Rania Abouzeid. Families have been divided and some see little point in planning for the future, but many resilient children seem to have acclimatized better than their elders, accepting sniper fire and the idea of death as small cause for concern. Syria
Concerns Mount That Israel Is Losing Patience on Iran Plan As the Obama administration doubles down on sanctions, some in Washington worry that Israel is running out of patience with the US, writes Laura Rozen. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and other officials urge patience to see if tough new economic sanctions bring about a diplomatic resolution. Israel
Syria 'Influence Game' Explores US Engagement With Iran In an exclusive report, Barbara Slavin covers a "competitive influence" game meant to stretch the minds of the US military. The object of the game, she writes, was not to overthrow Assad, tame Hezbollah or stop Iran’s nuclear program, but to leverage US capabilities and alliances and better understand how the region’s many actors fit together. Syria
