October was a month of dizzying developments in the fight against the Islamic State (IS) in northern Syria. First, Turkey launched Operation Peace Spring against Kurdish forces Oct. 9, as a result of which US President Donald Trump foisted the problem of imprisoned foreign IS fighters and their families on Ankara. On Oct. 27, IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi perished in a US raid in northern Idlib, a stone’s throw from the Turkish border. On the following day, his possible successor, Abu al-Hassan al-Muhajir, was killed in a drone strike near Jarablus, a border town controlled by the Turkey-backed Free Syrian Army. Then, on Nov. 3, Turkish intelligence captured Baghdadi’s elder sister, Rasmiya Awad, and her husband in a raid near the Turkish-controlled town of Azaz.
An oft-asked question over Baghdadi’s death concerns Turkey: Was Turkey not aware that Baghdadi was hiding right under its nose, apparently for many days? It is a pertinent question indeed. The answers “no” and “yes” would both be a problem for Ankara for different reasons.
