When 2016 was drawing to a close, Moscow surprisingly agreed to divide Syrian warring factions into “good” and “bad” guys and to recognize the idea of the “moderate opposition.”
On Jan. 10, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov announced the preparation of talks between the Syrian government and the armed opposition in Kazakhstan's capital, Astana, on Jan. 23. The rebels are seriously preparing for the talks. On Jan. 11, Astana hosted a meeting between Syria’s opposition figures and the nonmilitary opposition to find common ground for the upcoming negotiations. Previously, they accepted the terms of a deal to cease hostilities and confirmed their commitment to United Nations Resolution 2254 (2015) endorsing a road map for Syria’s peace process.
Moscow’s road to the recognition of large opposition movements, including Jaish al-Islam and Ahrar al-Sham, as negotiating partners was long and tortuous. In April 2016, at the UN, Russia insisted on blacklisting Jaish al-Islam and Ahrar al-Sham. Now Russia consents to the talks with them. When the Russian Ministry of Defense published the list of seven opposition factions Dec. 29, it raised many eyebrows among domestic and foreign experts. There have been very few Russian articles and commentaries expounding on this key step by the country’s military and political establishment and on the very selection criteria. Yet Russia’s move requires explanation, as something extraordinary has happened.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in October 2015 that the Free Syrian Army (FSA), and the moderate opposition in general, remained a phantom grouping with nothing to brag about. Since the very onset of Russia's military operation, Russia’s Ministry of Defense added its usual strong flavor of anti-Americanism to reports about the elimination of alleged Islamic State (IS) militants in Latakia and Idlib and the inexplicable destruction of Liwa al-Haqq’s headquarters in Raqqa province in Syria. Russia’s Foreign Ministry was insistent on establishing contact with the opposition in Syria. Unsurprisingly, it was Jaish al-Islam rather than IS and Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra) that officially declared war on Russia.
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