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Iranians believe Trump will violate nuclear deal

A new poll shows Iranian dissatisfaction with economic gains since the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action went into effect and apprehension about the policies of the new Trump administration.

An Iranian man holds a local newspaper displaying a portrait of Donald Trump a day after his election as the new US president, in the capital Tehran, on November 10, 2016.
Iran's President Hassan Rouhani said on November 9 there was "no possibility" of its nuclear deal with world powers being overturned by US president-elect Donald Trump despite his threat to rip it up.

 / AFP / ATTA KENARE        (Photo credit should read ATTA KENARE/AFP/Getty Images)
An Iranian man holds a local newspaper displaying a portrait of Donald Trump a day after his election as the new US president, in the capital Tehran, on Nov. 10, 2016. — ATTA KENARE/AFP/Getty Images

If Donald Trump preserves the Iran nuclear deal, that will surprise many Iranians.

That’s one finding of a new poll by the Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM) & IranPoll.com, which have repeatedly surveyed Iranian public opinion in recent years.

Of 1,000 Iranians polled from Dec. 10-24 last year, a month after Trump’s election, 77.5% were not confident that the United States would live up to its obligations under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Only 19% said they believed the United States under Trump would continue to comply with the JCPOA. The figures are a sharp change from the 45% confident and 41% not confident in a poll conducted by CISSM in September 2015, shortly after the successful conclusion of the nuclear negotiations. The new poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2%.

During the campaign, Trump harshly criticized the Iran deal. He told the American Israel Public Affairs Committee in March that the JCPOA was “catastrophic for America, Israel and the whole of the Middle East,” and said, “My first priority is to dismantle this disastrous deal on Iran.”

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