The intifada of attrition
Unlike the first two intifadas, the current uprising appears unlikely to lead to political breakthroughs or the rise of a new Palestinian leadership.
The current intifada will not yield substantial change for the Palestinians or bring about a diplomatic breakthrough. This is the belief of Fatah activists who served as field leaders in the first and second intifadas.
The first intifada (1987-1993) ended with the Oslo Accord, which on paper promised the creation of a Palestinian state within an established time frame. The second intifada (2000-2005), after terrible bloodshed, led to Israel’s withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and the rise of Hamas. If this is so, why don’t Fatah field leaders think the current intifada, being carried out by individuals, will bring about positive change, in the best-case scenario, or lead to tremendous chaos, in the worst-case scenario? In these activists' opinion, which is shared by Palestinian journalists who covered the germination of past intifadas and their results, today's intifada is doomed to fail because no leader has emerged to lead the would-be insurrectionists.
