Russian intervention throws a wrench into Turkey's Syria plans
Russian air superiority in Syria has destroyed Ankara's hopes for a safe zone in the north and "Syria without Assad."
Russia's military deployment and air operations in Syria surprised many leaders, none more so than those in Turkey, when it became obvious that the onslaught would not be aimed against the Islamic State. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan — following a visit to Moscow on Sept. 23 and a subsequent statement that he was prepared to closely cooperate with Russia in every field — should not have been so surprised. It is apparent, however, that the perception of decision-makers in Ankara varied greatly from the realities on the ground.
What has Ankara lost with the Russian intervention? Moscow, with the kiss of life it has given the Bashar al-Assad regime, put an end to Turkey’s hope of “Syria without Assad.” It also reinforced the idea that the armed groups considered the “moderate opposition” in Syria — groups supported by Turkey — are actually terrorist organizations. The air superiority Russia has imposed over western and southern Syria dashed Ankara's hopes for a no-fly zone over northern Syria. According to Arda Mevlutoglu, an independent security analyst, Russia's moves also ended the debate about establishing a safe zone in northern Syria.
