Will New Syria Opposition Survive?

The recently created Syrian National Coalition for Opposition and Revolutionary Forces has renewed some hopes for a viable replacement to the Assad regime. Founded during a series of meetings in Doha, the group already has been recognized by the governments of France, Turkey and the Arab Gulf states as the “sole legitimate representative of the Syrian people,” with cautious support by the European Union and the United States. With this backing the Coalition aims to garner the foreign and military support it claims it needs to break the current stalemate, overthrow the regime in Damascus and establish an interim government. 

Yet focusing singularly on how to empower a Syrian opposition against Assad is a misguided one that deflects the increasingly sectarian nature of the conflict and its impact on internal and regional stability. Instead of a neutral force seeking to unify the country’s increasingly fractious populations, the Coalition is driven by sectarian interests that are pitting Sunni Arabs against Alawites, while alienating other minority groups. Unless this sectarian divide is reconciled, the Coalition will face the same fiasco as its defunct predecessor, the Syrian National Council (SNC). Worse still, it will further encourage the Somalization of Syria as local groups carve out and consolidate their own power bases on the ground.